In a world where political and international relations are increasingly divisive, there's a growing consensus that the liberal world order, built on U.S. leadership and multilateral cooperation, is dead. But is this truly the case, or are we falling into a dangerous trap of self-fulfilling prophecy?
The current administration's stance on global leadership and its impact on the world order is a far cry from the ideals of the past. However, it's crucial to recognize that this doesn't mean the end of the world order as we know it. In fact, assuming its demise could lead to a dangerous lack of preparedness and a neglect of the very system that has underpinned global stability for decades.
The Liberal World Order: A Complex Reality
While cynics may argue that a truly liberal, rules-based order never truly existed, it's important to acknowledge the benefits it brought. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's address in Davos highlighted the truth: the order was partially false, with powerful nations often exempting themselves, but it also provided public goods, stable financial systems, and collective security. The U.S., during its period of hegemony, adopted an enlightened view, believing in the security and prosperity of other nations, which, in turn, supported U.S. leadership.
The Benefits of U.S. Global Leadership
The U.S.-led international system, despite its flaws, has been instrumental in maintaining global stability and prosperity. Here's a look at some key benefits:
- Avoiding Great-Power Wars: For the first time in history, the world has avoided major wars between powerful nations for over 80 years. This is a remarkable achievement when compared to the havoc wreaked by World War I and II.
- Open Sea Lanes and Trade: The U.S. has ensured freedom of navigation, keeping sea lanes open for global trade, a critical factor in fostering prosperity.
- Nuclear Nonproliferation: U.S. efforts and security guarantees have played a significant role in curbing the spread of nuclear weapons, a potential threat to global security.
- Economic Prosperity: The liberal international order has facilitated the largest expansion of global prosperity in history. Global GDP has increased tenfold since 1945, and extreme poverty has decreased significantly.
- Advancing Democracy and Freedom: The world has seen the greatest expansion of individual freedom and democracy, with more than half of all states becoming democracies by the 1990s.
The Risks of Abandoning Global Leadership
As the U.S. tires of its global role, it's essential to consider the potential consequences. Critics on both sides of the political spectrum have harsh words for the U.S.-led order, but they often overlook the risks of abandoning it:
- Increased Aggression and Conflict: Without a strong U.S. commitment to allies and norms, the cost of aggression could decrease, leading to a higher risk of major conflicts. The invasion of Ukraine is a stark reminder of this.
- Loss of Public Goods: Open sea lanes, a critical public good, could be at risk if the U.S. retreats from its commitment to freedom of navigation. The closure of key waterways would have devastating economic consequences.
- Nuclear Proliferation: The U.S. has played a crucial role in preventing the spread of nuclear weapons. Without its security guarantees, the world could see a dangerous expansion of nuclear-armed states.
The Way Forward: Reform, Not Retreat
The U.S. doesn't have to accept the demise of the world order. The next president should focus on reminding Americans of its value, addressing its shortcomings, and offering a new vision for leadership. Here's a look at some key steps:
- A New Bargain with Allies: Address legitimate concerns about unfair burdens on the U.S. by seeking greater contributions from allies to deal with growing threats and make alliances politically sustainable.
- Update the Alliance System: Reflect on the most likely global challenges of the 21st century, including great-power competition and climate change. Expand the G-7 to include key partners and give it a mandate to address national security issues.
- Respect for Rules and Institutions: While no system is perfect, eschewing institutions and rules altogether is a recipe for injustice and conflict. The next president should demonstrate respect for international law and norms.
- Address Economic Imbalances: The U.S.-led order must address global economic inequities and the downsides of globalization to regain support.
- Exercise Military Power with Humility: The U.S. should focus on deterrence and coalition-building, avoiding excessive military engagement and overreach.
Conclusion
The U.S.-led world order is not dead, and Americans should not give up on it. While it has its flaws, it has brought stability, prosperity, and security to the world. The next administration has the opportunity to reform and strengthen this order, ensuring a better future for all. As we consider our role in the world, let's remember the words of Winston Churchill: "A U.S.-led world order is probably the worst of all possible orders—except for all the others that have ever been tried."
